After the Chinese Spring Festival, the shipping market may rebound

Overseas analysts believe that the Chinese economy after the Lunar New Year will boost shipping prices.

In its latest weekly report, the ship brokerage company XClusiv said that the dry bulk shipping market usually shows signs of cooling in the first few months of each year, especially during the Chinese New Year. Sexual rainfall suspended the production and transportation of the Tamsui River Valley. In the first few weeks of 2023, the shipment of iron ore decreased by 13.1%year -on -year, the lowest level since 2019. On the other hand, China is restoring to import coal from Australia. At the same time, because the global power market is still affected by the Russian -Ukraine conflict, Indonesia's coal exports will continue to rise. It may reach a new high of 520 million tons in 2023, an increase of 6%over 2022.

XClusiv pointed out that the EU's embargo on Russia's refined oil products is as soon as possible, and a new turmoil will soon occur. The ban may be more destructive than the Russian crude oil embargo, which takes effect on December 5, 2022. The oil tanker accounts for about 59%of the total number of oil tankers, and the MR type ship accounts for 66%of the refined oil ship fleet, while the LR2, LR1 type and small oil tankers (10000 ~ 25000 DWT) each account for about 10%. Although India and China imported crude oil in large quantities, their desire to buy refined oil is not strong. According to predictions, Russia's export of crude oil on India may reach a new high. It is expected that India's crude oil imports will increase by about 24%from the previous month to 1.24 million barrels per day.

In the container shipping market, Herbelot CEO of the world's fifth largest liner company said that although the current container freight continues to decline, as the demand for replenishment increases, the orders of goods and transportation services will rise again. Heating may occur in March or June.

The XCLUIV report shows that in January 2023, the number of scrap ships increased significantly, most of which were container ships. The decline in container freight has prompted more and more shipowners to deliver old ships. According to reports, 14 container ships have been sold and dismantled so far this year, an increase of 25%from the total number of year in 2022. Market participants predict that the dismantling volume of container ships and bulk ships this year will increase significantly, mainly because a large number of ships' greenhouse gas emissions will be included in the CII minimum rating. At the same time, problems such as Pakistan's continuous power outage and severe foreign exchange shortage will also affect the ship demolition market.

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