As demand continues to weaken, shipping will continue to decline. The spot freight rate of the United States and Western routes has narrowed, but the decline in freight rates on European routes and Eastern routes are expanding.
According to the latest data of the Shanghai Export Container comprehensive freight index issued by the Shanghai Transport Exchange, last week, the freight rate of Shanghai to European routes fell below $ 1,500/Teu. Shanghai Port exported to Europe's basic port market freight (sea transport and sea transport surcharges) was $ 1478/Teu, a decrease of 16.2%from the previous period; the shipping price of the Mediterranean line fell 7.2%to 2061 US dollars/Teu; Falling 2.9%to $ 1632/Feu; the freight price of the East Line fell 13.6%to $ 4,223/Feu.
The Shanghai Aviation Stock Exchange pointed out that the recent economic situation in Europe is not optimistic. A number of manufacturing data is lower than that of the glory line, energy prices are high, inflation is high, and transportation demand lacks growth momentum. Due to the continuous tightening policy of the Federal Reserve to control inflation, the US economic performance has continued to decline recently, the amount of goods has been weak, and the fundamentals of supply and demand have weakened.
In addition, the Persian Bay route was $ 1650/Teu, a decrease of 8.9%from the previous period; Australian and New routes were $ 1006/Teu, a decrease of 16.2%from the previous period; South America routes were 2944 US dollars/TEU, a decrease of 22.9%from the previous period.
Due to the acceleration of the decline in freight rates, the shipping company has increased the strength of the regulatory compartment, but the difficulty of keeping the cost line is getting higher and higher. The shipping consulting institutions such as AlphaLiner have changed the previous forecasts. The Far East to Europe seems to be turning to hard landing. SCFI European line freight has fallen by 30%in the past three weeks.
The industry summarizes, the key to the reduction of goods is the demand side. The "three highs" issues such as high inventory, high inflation, and high interest rates in the United States have led to a decline in demand and reduced goods. After that, the amount of goods exported to the United States was 23%and 30%year -on -year in September and October. Compared with the same period in 2019, it decreased by 6%and 9%, and it was expected to decrease again in November.
Looking at Europe, due to the continuous Russian and Ukraine conflict, inflation and energy prices remain high, seriously suppress consumption, the amount of goods is reduced, and the transportation demand is weak. Demand in Europe and the United States shrinks, and transportation power supply is greater than transportation demand is the key to continuously decline in freight rates. The opposite of the supply and demand imbalance caused by the previous supply chain is chaotic, the lack of ships, the lack of the cabin, and the port caused by the port. Sea-Intelligence predicts that if the global economy has determined to decline and triggers production reduction and layoffs, the amount of goods at the end of the year may face a greater correction.
Large shipping companies such as Masky, Herbelot, and Yangming have stated that they will adjust their deployment capacity to match freight demand.
According to the SEA-Intelligence report, due to the decline in the demand for imported goods in Asia, retailers' adjustment of inventory, and concerns about economic recession next year, shipping companies are rapidly increasing the number of air navigation of the cross-Pacific route. "In the past two weeks, the cross -Pacific route announced 50 blank voyages, covering the last 10 weeks of 2022."
Sea-Intelligence said that as of November 4, the shipping company canceled the 446,756TEU deployed on the cross-Pacific East route in November, accounting for 17.1%of the total capacity of 2.6 million TEU, which was higher than 195,391teu three weeks ago. Essence
At present, Sea-Intelligence expects that 212,913TEU capacity will be removed in December, accounting for 7.7%of the total capacity of 2.76 million standard boxes. Three weeks ago, the agency predicted that the capacity that was canceled in December was 60,724teu.
Sea-Intelligence also said that if the reservation of Asian Laurea Port was disappointed in the peak import season before the Lunar New Year, the shipping company may announce further voyage next month.
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