In the second half of 2023, especially since August, with the adjustment of the freight rates of various shipping companies, the freight in the container shipping market has rebounded.
But the analyst of the well -known shipping analysis company Clarkson said that this may be just a wishful thinking. The downturn in the container shipping market may last until 2024. Clarkson predicts that in the future, major shipping companies may continue to face the unfavorable trend of shipping costs.
01 Market to afford pressure
Clarkson said that during the epidemic in the past few years, the shipping company has made a lot of money. However, since the end of 2022, the global shipping demand has declined sharply due to inflation, high interest rates and excess inventory.
Clarkson said in the latest market analysis report: "After some parts of the market have rebounded in some parts in recent months, it is expected that by the second half of 2023, the market will be further softened."
The report also added that "not only that, such a trend may continue until next year." "The freight rate will further decline, and the prospect of 2024 is still the market will continue to bear pressure."
02 Excess capacity will become the main cause
In terms of capacity supply, Clarkson's expected new regulations for carbon emission reduction may eliminate some old ships, and then reduce part of the capacity of the container shipping market.
Clarkson said the new carbon emissions regulations will absorb 1-2%of new capacity. But even considering the active factors of the demolition of old ships, the capacity of 2023 and 2024 will increase at a rate of 7%per year.
Considering the scale and continuous demand side pressure of the expected delivery, these impacts are unlikely to change the weaker container ship market alone.
Therefore, Clarkson believes that a large number of new ships ordered by shipping companies are the main reason for their market prospects.
03 contract freight rates continue to decline
Compared with the time -period freight, contract freight rates often reflect the expectations of the parties to the market in the market.
Xeneta recently said that the current level of the container contract price has reached the lowest point of the current container contract price.
According to the Xeneta market analyst, Emily Stuusboll, the global container long -term contract freight in July fell by 9.5%, exacerbating the severe decline in last year.
According to the Xeneta shipping index, since the same period of 2022, the long -term valid contract freight rate has fallen by 57.8%.
Emily Stausboll said, "given that the number of ships delivered is reaching a record high, the decline in the contract price of this contract has almost no signs of relief."
Therefore, on the one hand, the global shipping demand is weak, and the delivery of a large number of new shipping capacity is the reason for the long -term sluggish market for the market.