During the epidemic, the container shipping sector ushered in an unprecedented prosperity scene, but in the next year, collectives will face dual pressures of downturn demand and rising capacity growth.
Daniel Richards, an analyst of the shipping consulting agency Maritime Strategies International (MSI), said that three factors in 2023 are important to collect prospects: one is trade growth, the second is the growth rate and scale of the fleet, and the third is congestion and transportation management.
Prospect of trade growth
Richards pointed out that due to the pressure of excess inventory, the stress of interest rates to the real estate market, and the pressure of consumer disposable income, at least in the first half of 2023, the prospect of trade growth will be very challenging.
Fleet growth forecast
The growth of capacity will accelerate significantly. MSI predicts that in 2023 and 2024, the capacity of container fleets will increase by 7%year -on -year, and in 2025, it will exceed the average growth rate. If the amount of waste is not high, the annual growth rate of the fleet will be as high as 10%.
Deluli pointed out in its latest container forecast report that the growth rate of fleet in 2023 was relatively low, 1.9%.
Congestion and capacity management
This epidemic is characterized by serious supply chain interruptions and container transportation congestion, but this situation is now changing.
Deluli pointed out that the relief of the supply chain blockage will increase the effective capacity by 19%, allowing the market to return to a state of excess supply. Moreover, the current reduction of capacity reduction has not yet been realized: the proportion of idle fleets is only slightly higher than 3 months ago, and the shipping ship has just begun.
In the second half of 2022, the current terminal freight rate dropped sharply, which is far lower than the contract price. Xeneta's data shows that the contract freight rate has signs of decline.
In the first half of the year, a large proportion of contracts need to be renewed, and the spot freight rate of the signing season will have a huge impact on the contract freight rate. The decline in contractual freight will vary from the liner company, routes, and spot and contracts. MSI is expected to not fall to the level before the epidemic.
Effect on the income of the liner company
A major problem facing the current liner company is the impact of the decline in freight on profit. Deluli said that although the profitability of the Asia-West and Asia-Nordic routes is rapidly declining, the shipping company can still be profitable, leading to insufficient power to reduce capacity. However, if the power management is not strengthened, the cost of these routes will soon exceed the income. In contrast, the income of cross -Atlantic routes is still much higher than costs, becoming the best profitable route.
Richards said that different routes performed differently in the next few quarters. Asia-American routes may face pressure faster, and the higher-proportion of the long-term liner company will maintain longer profit. It is expected that by this year, the prospects of the entire industry will be more optimistic, and the profitability will tend to be normal without falling to the ultra -low profit level before the epidemic.