The attention of the Hong Kong and Airlines logistics industry to global trade is surpassing the past.
Faced with many challenges such as the sustainable epidemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the changes in the energy market, the global trade pattern and the supply chain system are facing reconstruction, and uncertainty has increased. There are even opinions that the era of globalization is about to end.
So, what is the prospect of global trade?
DHL Trade Growth Atlas
A few days ago, DPDHL Group, which has the third largest sea freight on the world and the second largest air transport on behalf of the DHL brand, jointly released the report of the "DHL Trade Growth Map of Trade Growth" (DHL "and the Stana Group of the University of New York University of New York. Trade Growth Atlas) (hereinafter referred to as report).
The report covers 173 countries and regions around the world. The DPDHL Group has conducted statistics and analysis based on trade data, and gives its judgment on global trade development trends and prospects.
DPDHL CEO Frank Appel said in the report of the report: "Overall, the results of the report confirm my optimism -to maintain open trade and continue to enhance cooperation between countries, and it will still be future trade prosperity Key driving force. Trade will continue to build bridges and strengthen global connections. "
He also believes that decision makers may weigh the relationship between costs and risks, and re -consider the layout of certain supply chains to ensure efficient and safe. In order to avoid the risk of a single source of interruption, suppliers may be prolonged, or use multiple trade routes and transportation methods.
John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express (DHL Express), said: "In the current global trade environment, DHL can help customers re -sort out the supply chain layout and build a more secure and efficient supply chain. , We have the ability to provide logistics solutions that meet the various needs of customers, and can provide stable and reliable services in the changing market environment. "
In the report, the DHL Globalization Initiative Research Center co -established by DPDHL Group and New York University Stan Business School in the United States has given ten judgments on the development trend and prospects of global trade.
Analysis conclusion
1. During the epidemic period, global trade showed amazing toughness. Even if the bottleneck of the supply chain limits further growth, the total trade volume has also expanded to the level before the epidemic.
2. Although the Russian -Ukraine conflict and the slowdown of global economic growth, the trade growth rate in 2022 and 2023 will still be slightly higher than the average growth rate of the past ten years.
3. During the epidemic, the sales of e -commerce flourishing have expanded the opportunity for sellers to enter the new market for the world. It is expected that cross -border e -commerce state will continue to grow strongly.
4. Global trade growth is particularly important in the current market environment. Trade can accelerate economic growth, reduce inflation, and enable countries to obtain diversified key resources input.
5. The share of emerging economies in global trade has increased from 24%in 2000 to 40%in 2012, and China alone has promoted about half of this growth. But in the past ten years, the share of emerging economies in global trade has not changed much.
6.2016-2021, China created a quarter of the world's trade growth. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2021-2026, China will still achieve strong trade growth, but the share in global trade growth will drop to 13%.
7. Southeast Asia and South Asia, new trade growth poles are emerging. In addition, trade growth in Africa south of Sahara will also accelerate sharply. After decades of moving to the east hemisphere after decades, global trade is now turning to the southern hemisphere.
8. Although the trade growth rate of emerging economies is faster, the trade growth of developed economies is greater. IMF predicts that by 2026, 55%of trade growth comes from developed economies and 45%will come from emerging economies.
9. Trade focusing on developed economies and emerging economies has also changed. Emerging economies have become an important importer of raw materials, as well as intermediate products and consumer goods exporters.
10. Emerging economies also compete with each other in interconnection, innovation capabilities and leading enterprises to promote trade development. The change of future trade models may be more reflected in the quality of these countries, not the quantity.
Regarding the above judgment, Steven Altman, a senior researcher and DHL globalization initiative at the Stan Business School of New York University of New York University of New York University, said: "These conclusions show that developed economies, emerging economies, and all regions around the world still contain huge huge ones Trade growth opportunities. The global trade pattern is changing and bringing new challenges, which strongly refutes the forecast of major retrogression in global trade. "
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