Last year, due to serious exchange losses and high shipping costs, foreign trade companies did not dare to accept orders, and cross-border sellers did not dare to make up for goods. Today, in the peak Christmas season, exchange rates and shipping costs are showing an optimistic trend. However, some foreign trade factories and sellers have found that the quantity of orders from overseas is much lower, and some sellers even ask questions. Is this year's peak season not prosperous?

Even the small home appliances that have dominated Amazon's BSR list for many years have sold Beiding shares bluntly in a recent investor exchange. The weak overseas consumption is a definite large-scale impact. Almost all overseas consumer goods are sold in inventory, and this The process is still not over to this day.

But on the other hand, the short-term decline in orders does not mean that the peak season is not prosperous, but this year's peak season has been delayed compared to last year!

01

Christmas exports are not prosperous? Short-term decline in single volume

"Even if the Christmas season is done well, half of the SKUs need to be cut off, or all of them may need to be cut off." An Amazon seller said with emotion. In his opinion, this year's Christmas market is much lighter than in previous years.

Another seller feedback, from Amazon's backstage sales can also be seen, this year's Christmas market demand has indeed declined. The same link has the same sales ranking position. Last year, it sold thousands of orders per day, but now there are only a few hundred orders.

In addition to the decline in sellers' orders, the cross-border supply chain also felt some chills.

A person in charge of a foreign trade factory told Hugo Cross-border that in addition to the surge in exports of electromechanical equipment and other products, the order volume of foreign trade factories that produce daily necessities such as shoes and chairs has declined, especially from European and American customers. On the contrary, the number of orders from some South American countries and some Southeast Asian countries has steadily increased.

In this regard, Hugo Cross-border also received similar views from several factory leaders. They generally believe that this year's Christmas export demand is indeed less than in previous years, and they dare not invest too much, fearing that it may eventually become a backlog of inventory.

According to industry analysts, this is mainly due to the decline in demand in European and American countries and the fact that overseas customer inventories are still too saturated. The increase in orders in some Southeast Asian countries has a lot to do with the continuous release of RCEP dividends.

On the one hand, as the American people are worried about inflation, US consumer confidence continues to be sluggish. According to data released by the World Large Business Research Association on July 26, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 95.7 in July from a revised 98.4 in June, the lowest level since February 2021. With personal consumption spending accounting for about 70% of the U.S. economy, many analysts worry that sluggish consumer confidence will lead to a decline in consumer spending.

On the other hand, due to the strong purchases by overseas customers last year, the decline in consumer demand, the large amount of replenishment earlier and supply chain problems and other factors, overseas customers are still destocking. It is understood that this year, platforms such as Walmart and Macy's have been vigorously clearing their inventory. In order to solve the inventory crisis, Walmart, Macy's, and Target have cleared many products at low prices in the second quarter.

Beiding shares, which has dominated the Amazon BSR list for many years, disclosed to the public that this year was a tough year for overseas business, and the overall overseas consumption was weak, which was a large-scale impact. Almost all overseas consumer goods are being sold in stock, and the process is not over to this day. Both the overseas private label business and the foundry business of Beiding felt the impact of the decline in overseas demand. In the first half of the year, the revenue of Beiding's foundry business fell by 20.42% year-on-year.

02

Sea freight rates continue to drop, and orders may be on the way

The global container freight index launched by the Baltic Shipping Exchange and Freightos shows that the freight rate from China/East Asia to the West Coast of the United States is US$4,787/40-foot container (FEU), down about 60% from January, and the freight rate from China/East Asia to North Europe The price was $9,128/FEU, down 42% from January.

From a global perspective, as of September 7, the global average freight price was US$5,286/FEU, down about 45% from January.

The freight rate has dropped, and the shipment volume has not ushered in a major eruption. The latest data from ContainerTrades shows that compared with the first six months of 2021, European imports from China in the first half of the year were 3.84 million TEUs, a drop of nearly 5%.

Container ship congestion has also eased outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif., with container imports at two of the state's three largest ports falling for the second straight month in July.

Many sellers said that although sea freight prices continued to decline, they did not dare to stock up too much during the peak season. In particular, sellers in Europe are now facing a double drop in exchange rates and order volumes.

"The recent euro exchange rate is really unsightly. No one buys the goods at a 10% discount when the inventory is cleared. Demand and consumption are affected." A cross-border seller complained.

A person in charge of a foreign trade factory said that in previous years, many customers' Christmas orders began to be placed in August, and the shipping time basically took one and a half months to arrive in the United States. However, this year, the US-Western route is smooth, it can arrive in less than 20 days, and the shipping schedule is not tight. Many customers have sent messages to postpone the order for goods first, and they are not in a hurry to place orders.

But the peak season is still expected. As the "World Christmas Products Base", Yiwu exports more than 20,000 Christmas products to more than 100 countries and regions every year. Data show that from January to July this year, the export value of Yiwu Christmas supplies reached 1.75 billion yuan, an increase of 88.5% year-on-year; among them, the export value in July was 850 million yuan, an increase of 85.6% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 75.8%.

In addition, many investment banks in the United States predict that Christmas in the United States will usher in the largest consumption season in history in the third quarter, and the peak season in 2022 may be even more prosperous! It is not that the peak season is not busy, it is likely that the customer's order is still on the way.

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