Regarding the global economy, the Governor of the World Bank issued an early warning signal!

According to CCTV News, the World Bank Governor Malpas said on October 13 that the agency has reduced the expected global economic growth in 2023 to 1.9%forecast from June, and the global economy is dangerous approaching the recession.

Malpas said at a media conference at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Autumn Annual Conference on the same day that issues such as inflation, rising interest rates, and debt growth have caused serious blows to poor countries. He said the global economy may fall into decline.

Malpaas said that the growth rate of global economic growth will mean that income levels have declined. He quoted a report released by the World Bank a few days ago that the new crown epidemic has led the global poverty reduction efforts to suffer major setbacks. In 2020, about 70 million people fell into extreme poverty, and the Ukrainian crisis could make the situation worse.

According to this report, the median value of global revenue in 2020 fell by 4%, which is the first time since the measurement of the median revenue in 1990. Malpaas said that if the global economy has fallen, the median revenue will be further reduced.

Malpas also expressed concern about the concentration of global capital in the "top" of developed economies. He called on capital to flow more to new enterprises and developing countries, and this requires developed economies to change the direction of fiscal and monetary policy.

Georkierva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said on October 13 that emerging markets and developing countries are being strengthened in the US dollar, high loan costs, and "triple strikes" in capital outflows.

Gorkoya said at a media conference at the IMF and the World Bank Autumn Annual Conference that day that when the world economy encountered impact, it was necessary to support fragile emerging markets and developing countries. For vulnerable countries, the rising grain security threat and debt rise are two major challenges.

She pointed out that 345 million people around the world are in a serious unsafe food, and about 48 countries are seriously affected by unsafe food, many of which are southern African countries in Sahara.

IMF data shows that more than 60%of low -income countries are in debt dilemma, or they are facing high risk of debt dilemma. Gorkoya called for a more effective debt solution mechanism.

Golkiyeva said that in the case of fundamental changes, uncertainty, and volatility of world economic experience, policy makers need to maintain stability in policy leverage, and the cost of errors and poor policy intentions is "very high. "".

She urged policy makers to reduce inflation, implement responsible fiscal policies, and maintain financial stability. She said: "If we want to help the public fight against inflation, we must ensure that fiscal and monetary policies must go hand in hand."

IMF and the World Bank held two plenary meetings each year, including spring meetings and autumn annual meetings. This fall annual meeting was held in Washington, the capital of the United States from October 10th to 16th.

The US interest rate hikes cause multi -country currency depreciation and high inflation

Faced with the continuous appreciation of the US dollar, even Japan, South Korea, Britain, and the European Union's efforts to defend the local currency "basically failed".

The Wall Street Journal reported that since this year, the US dollar index has risen more than 14%. With the strong rise in the US dollar, the exchange rate of the euro, the pound and the yen against the US dollar has fallen to the lowest point in decades: from January to August this year, the euro depreciated by 12%, the British pound depreciated by 14%, and the yen depreciated by 17%. Currency of emerging market countries and developing countries has been severely damaged: the Egyptian pound fell 18%and Hungarian currency Fulin fell by 20%.

In the early morning of September 22, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve Federal Public Marketing Committee announced that the federal fund interest rate was raised by 75 basis points. This is the fifth rate hike in the Federal Reserve and the third consecutive interest rate hikes. On the morning of September 22, the US dollar broke the important psychological barrier of 145 against the yen, and the Bank of Japan finally intervened in the foreign exchange market again after 24 years. At the same time, at 9:13 on the 22nd local time (8:13 Beijing time), the exchange rate of the Han Dynasty fell below the 1400 to 1 mark on the 22nd of the US dollar, setting a lowest record in 13 years. logistics

"The Korean business community has entered an emergency." "Korean National News" said that the biggest concern for the exchange rate is the aviation industry. For every 10 won for the US dollar exchange rate, Korean Air and South Korea and Asian Airlines will produce 35 billion won and 28.4 billion won, respectively. Although some export companies such as the automotive industry can ensure the competitiveness of price through the depreciation of the Korean won, most companies such as car parts companies that need to import raw materials need to be greater than the US dollar exchange rate.

"30 years ago in Japan", "Japan Economic News" said on the 19th that according to the OECD forecast, Japan's nominal GDP may reach 553 trillion yen this year. Calculated by 1 US dollars against 140 yen, Japan's GDP is about $ 3.9 trillion. Since 1992, it has first been lower than $ 4 trillion for the first time since 1992. Over the past 30 years, GDP has increased to 4 times, and Japan, which has previously accounted for more than 15 % of the global share, currently only accounts for nearly 4 %. Japan's GDP in 2012 exceeded $ 6 trillion, 80%higher than Germany, but the two countries are basically the same. The average index of the Nikkei has fallen by 20 % this year. The Japanese salary also returned 30 years ago, which reduced Japan's purchasing power and talent attractiveness. The report quoted the Honorary professor of Japan ’s Hchiya University, Nodaguchi Yuki, saying:" The depreciation of currency will reduce the national strength of Japan. It will be difficult to attract talents from overseas and hinder economic growth. "

According to CCTV News, the recent multinational currency currency in the Middle East has also continued to depreciate sharply, and the inflation rate has continued to soar, which has a serious impact on the national economy and the lives of the people.

On September 20, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira to the US dollar was about 18.31 to 1, a depreciation of more than 50%compared to a year ago, and a decrease of more than 35%compared with the beginning of this year.

Lebanon has implemented a fixed exchange rate policy linked to the US dollar since 1997. The official exchange rate has remained at about 1,500 to 1, but the exchange rate of the black market has continued to decline recently. On the 19th, it fell to about 39,000 to 1, hitting a record low.

On the same day, the Bank of Syria adjusted the official exchange rate of the Syrian pound to the US dollar from 2814 to 30 to 3015 to 1, and the local black market exchange rate had reached 4,400 to 1.

Even in Egypt, which is relatively strong in local currency, the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound to the US dollar has fallen by more than 20%over the past six months.

While the local currency depreciated sharply, the inflation rate of many countries in the Middle East continued to soar. According to data from the Turkish Bureau of Statistics, the country's August consumer price index (CPI) rose 80.21%year -on -year, a 24 -year high. The inflation rate of Tunisia rose for 11 consecutive months, reaching 8.6%in August, the highest level in 30 years. Israel's annualized inflation rate rose to 5.2%in July this year, the highest since October 2008.

Recently, the Fed's continuous interest rate hike is the direct cause of the continuous depreciation and inflation of many Middle East countries. In addition, some countries their own economic structure, or the unstable political situation in the years, has led to weak economic growth, and is more likely to be affected by external factors. Currency devaluation and high inflation have a serious impact on ordinary people's lives in the Middle East. The head of emerging market research in Oxford Economic Research Institute said that some emerging market countries are at the critical point of the economic crisis. "If the US dollar appreciates further, it will be the last straw that crushes the camel." sea freight

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