At this time every year, it is usually the peak freight season, but so far, it is difficult to find signs of the peak season of the air freight market. Instead, as demand slows and the recovery of travel, the air transportation capacity increases, and the freight rate continues to decline.

Xeneta reported that the shipping price of the freight rate reported that the air transport spot price fell 9%year -on -year in September, and the first time this year was lower than the 2021 transport level. According to the Baltic Index (BAI) data, the freight rate has fallen by 2.8%in the past week, a decrease of 21.6%compared with last year.

However, although the demand is weak, the air freight rate is still more than twice that of 2019. The BAI index shows that the air transport rates from Hong Kong and Shanghai to North America in September decreased by 19%and 42%year -on -year, but still increased by 175%and 92%compared with the level before the epidemic.

Deepering to specific trade routes can prove how the market is stagnant. According to FreightOS's data, the slow demand for export products in China has led to the trans -Pacific air freight freight rate of 32%since September last year, to $ 5.12/kg, which is half of the level of one year ago; 19%, to $ 4.13/kg, a 43%decrease from last year.

The weekly trend and year -on -year trend divided by regional air freight.

At the same time, the air freight data provider WORLDACD reports that the volume of air freight is declining, and the freight volume in the 38th and 39th weeks has decreased by 12%year -on -year. The volume of air exports in the Asia -Pacific region decreased by 20%compared with the high point last year, and the volume of air export goods in North America decreased by 12%year -on -year. The company said: "The freight volume shows the trend of continuous weakness, and there are no clear signs that the peak season will occur in the fourth quarter."

There are several factors affecting air cargo transportation. High inventory, inflation, and consumers have transferred more expenditure to the service industry, reducing the demand for international shipping and air transport. Due to the energy challenges brought by the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the production of Germany and other European countries has slowed. Many large consignor booked an order at the beginning of the year to avoid the interruption of the supply chain and be more cautious about the new orders, because they do not want to surplus excess inventory with the change of consumer purchase habits.

Bruce Chan, the global logistics director and senior analyst of the investment bank, said: "In the end, we expect these trends to continue. Considering the increase in inventory, increased supply chain flow, decreased the surplus role of fiscal and stimulating policies, and the global economic trend Uncertainty, we think there will be no peaks. "

But he added: "Nevertheless, we believe that the freight rate may maintain a level higher than the level before the epidemic in terms of structure." He also mentioned the instability and economic uncertainty of geopolitics, as well as the remaining remaining ones, and the remaining ones Factors such as fluctuations and supply chains.

Marco Bloemen, the head of Accenture Seabury Cargo, also said: "Last year is excellent, but this year will not be so good." Like Stifel, he believes that "interference" will continue. He predicts that the level of aviation trade in the fourth quarter will be between the fourth quarter of 2018 and the fourth quarter of 2019. "Long -term signs show that the economy will continue to grow. In the short term, it needs to be cautious and there are major adverse factors."

Bruce Chan reminds that do not over -interpret the economic signal of good or bad ginseng. "Of course, the rapid decline in freight and freight rates is of course possible. But if the inventory is fully reduced, and consumer demand remains more flexible than it is currently generally considered The statement does not fully represent the entire market. The retailer's efforts that are currently discounted to clear the inventory may pave the way for the replenishment of the later peak, and then generate the corresponding price peak in the later period of the season. "

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