The US dollar fell to a four-year low after the war between Russia and Ukraine


On February 24, the situation in Ukraine deteriorated sharply. The Russian Defense Ministry said that the Ukrainian border guards did not resist Russian forces. At present, the military infrastructure of the Ukrainian armed forces air force has been paralyzed, and the air defense forces of the Ukrainian armed forces have been completely suppressed. air freight rate

Modern war is like a tornado. It takes less than a day from declaration of war to occupation. This wave of changes in the international situation injured not only the Ukrainian authorities, but also investors, as well as our cross-border e-businessmen

What cross-border e-commerce sellers are most worried about, in addition to closing stores, not issuing orders, price rise policies and being teased by peers, the decline of the US dollar exchange rate is also a terrible thing.

For the seller, the profit of a single product = (Sales - Freight - Commission) * exchange rate - product purchase price (cost) - first trip - Packaging - domestic freight. In this way, we can clearly feel the impact of exchange rate on profits.

The continued deterioration of the situation in Ukraine has boosted global risk aversion, and the RMB has maintained its strength due to the prominent characteristics of "risk aversion". The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once broke through the 6.31 mark, setting a new high in recent four years. This wave of exchange rate changes has made cross-border e-commerce, which is not profitable, even worse. air freight rate

Earlier, some sellers said that when the exchange rate fell to 6.3, many cross-border companies may not be able to support it, and the whole team may collapse. Now the exchange rate has fallen to 6.3. As the current situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain, cross-border e-commerce companies should be prepared for exchange rate hedging. As of press time, it has rebounded slightly. It is the last word to make a timely decision to collect the money.

In the second half of 2021, many sellers make complaints about the dollar's exchange rate against the renminbi. The US dollar exchange rate fell. For small and medium-sized sellers, although they have less funds, they will face greater pressure in view of their small affordability. For big sellers, the money loss can be said to be quite heavy.

For large sales, it is necessary to increase foreign market hedging, foreign exchange forward contracts, foreign exchange futures, currency options and other businesses to avoid the risk of dollar depreciation. Small and medium-sized sellers of cross-border e-commerce basically avoid losses by locking foreign exchange.

Of course, the key to dealing with the decline of the exchange rate is to increase the price and reduce the impact of the exchange rate on the proportion of profits. At present, many domestic sellers are losing money to grab the market. Because of the low price spiral, high advertising fees, power and production restriction, high logistics fees and the mutual mischief of their peers, they have already eaten up the profits of the products. As for whether we can make money in the later stage, it is unknown. air freight rate

From the perspective of the overall environment, the model homogenization is serious and the comprehensive cost is very high. If sellers still want to maintain the low-cost competition model, the selling price can not rise. The appreciation of RMB will greatly reduce the profits of sellers and the loss rate will also rise sharply.

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