With unusually long congestion in the North Sea region, analysts at Germany's Kiel Institute for World Economics fear that severe congestion, high transport costs and the resulting problems with supply chains could undercut the latest Kiel Positive data in the Kiel Trade Indicator report.
According to analysts' analysis, more than 2% of global capacity is at a standstill in the North Sea. They warned that the inability of these ships to load and unload their cargo in time due to unusually prolonged congestion could have an impact on future trade outcomes.
According to the latest data update from Kiel's trade indicator, world trade increased by 0.4% (price and seasonally adjusted) in June from the previous month. However, the results showed that Europe was the weakest performer, with German imports up 2.5% but exports falling slightly. The latest Kiel index showed a slight decline in overall European exports and a smaller increase in imports. In contrast, the United States and China, where port congestion has eased, continued to show strong growth in both imports and exports.
Vincent Stamer, head of trade indicators at Kiel, said: “There is no sign of an end to container shipping congestion. For Germany and Europe, this mainly affects overseas trade, especially with Asia. For example, consumer electronics, furniture Or the textiles are all shipped from Asia.”
As an indicator of the potential impact on European trade, analysts highlighted a sharp drop in imports on routes from Asia to Europe. According to the latest report from Kiel Metrics, "the number of container ships currently in transit is down by more than 20% compared to what would be expected under normal circumstances." They are watching traffic in the Red Sea, which they say is the most important link between Europe and Asia. trade routes. Stamer said the last time there was such a large gap was at the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak two years ago.
Stamer said: “A decisive factor may be that the negative impact of the closure of Shanghai is now evident due to the 40-day voyage from China to Europe. Congestion of container ships in the North Sea and the growing importance of the new Belt and Road Initiative for rail transport impact, and may also reduce cargo volumes in the Red Sea."
The latest report also highlights that cargo volumes at Russian ports are now quite a sign that they are trying to replace European trade with Asian volumes. Cargo volumes at the Port of St. Petersburg, where European cargoes arrive, continued to decline. The other two largest container ports have more links to Asian trade and are recovering to some extent.
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