The new transportation power is delivered in large quantities, but the market demand is constantly decreasing. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has fallen for 17 weeks.
According to data released by the Shanghai Aviation Stock Exchange on October 14, the latest issue of the SCFI index fell 108.95 to 1814, a decrease of 5.7%, a decrease of 65%from the beginning of the year. The four major routes in Europe and the United States have fallen straight. Among them, the US Western Line and the European line have fallen by more than 12%, and the distance from the high point has fallen by 74%and 67%, respectively.
Last week, the shipping price of the United States West Line fell 302 US dollars to US $ 2097, a decrease of 12.5%; the Eastern Line of the United States fell 343 US dollars per FEU, fell to 5,816 US dollars, down 5.6%. The European line fell 369 US dollars to $ 2581, a decrease of 12.5%; the Mediterranean Line fell to $ 252 to $ 2,747 per Teu, a decrease of 8.4%.
The South American Line (Santos) rose by $ 95 to $ 5,120 per Teu, an increase of 1.89%; the Persian Gulf line rose 295 US dollars to $ 1171 per week, an increase of 28.40%.
In terms of the Asian Line, the Guan West Line of Japan rose minimum to $ 14 to $ 325, an increase of 4.5%; the Japanese -American Guan East Line rose slightly by $ 1 to $ 302. The Southeast Asian Line (Singapore) also rose minimally to $ 1 to $ 349, and the South Korean line (Busan) fell 8 to $ 254, a 3%decrease.
Industry analysis pointed out that although the SCFI index has fallen 17 weeks in a row, the decline last week did not increase due to the Golden Week, but the average decline in nearly 10%per week a few weeks ago. It has also been picked up, and the shipping price of Asia is also stable. It is estimated that the off -season freight rates in the European and American lines in the fourth quarter will not fall too much, and the Asian line will be supported.
Factors such as raising interest rate increases, inflation, war, epidemic conditions affect consumer confidence, and the demand in Europe and the United States has slowed rapidly. The problem has been alleviated by half of the year, which means that the freight rate will return to normalization next.
Alphaliner predicts that nearly 2.4 million TEUs will add new capacity delivery operations next year, which is more than twice that of more than 1.1 million TEU in the same period last year. In 2024, the new capacity is as high as 2.8 million TEUs, which exacerbates the market's concerns about excess capacity. Nearly 30%of the capacity is a dual fuel ship, which is estimated to be mainly used for fleet updates to cope with new environmental protection regulations that will take effect next year.
Analysts said that the current level of freight rates in Europe and the United States is still above the cost price, and the main collection companies can still be profitable, but many high -priced rental companies or small ships may face the turning point of the loss, especially the West West.
On the other hand, the three major shipping alliances also have sufficient capabilities to regulate capacity. The top ten worldwide shipping companies in the world can master 85%of the market capacity, and can further control the capacity of capacity by drawing ships and reduction. In order to cope with the decline in freight demand from the Far East to North America and the decline in freight rates, the first two collectives of the Mediterranean Shipping and Maski Shipping have been announced to close certain route services.
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